US agencies announce of El Nino to cloud entire monsoon
US agencies announce of
El Nino to cloud entire monsoon
As per US weather agencies on Thursday made an announcement that an El Nino has now formed and is expected to strengthen till the winter months this year
Coincidentally on a day when the monsoon arrived in the Indian mainland with its onset over Kerala.
El Nino, a weather condition marked by abnormal warming of surface waters in the east and central Pacific along with changes in global wind currents usually, but not always, leads to poor summer monsoon rains in India.
El Nino conditions, which generally occur every two to six years, have reemerged after four years. The last event was in 2018-19.
The monthly update released on Thursday by weather agencies under the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said conditions over the Pacific in May met all El Nino parameters, including sea surface temperatures being at least 0.5 degrees C above average, continuing wind anomalies and enhanced rainfall along the equator.
Over the past two months, weather agencies around the world had forecast that El Nino was likely to develop in the summer this year.
With this, the entire monsoon season (June-September) this year is likely to be in the presence of a strengthening El Nino. This means, the large-scale weather features will not favour good rainfall during the season.
According to IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the five dynamical weather models that we studied as part of our new multi-model ensemble forecasting system for the monsoon showed normal rainfall over the four-month period. These models don’t tell us which particular weather parameters are likely to offset the influence of El Nino, although Indian Ocean conditions (IOD) are expected to be positive for rainfall.
Six of the seven El Nino years since 2000 have coincided with below-normal monsoon rains in India. The only exception was in 2006, when the El Nino developed around September. In five of these were drought years, with rainfall below 90% of LPA. The US update said the El Nino was currently weak with a 66% chance of it strengthening into a moderate event in the July-August-September period and a 54% chance of it becoming a strong event by October-November-December.
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News input KV Raman
