According to latest news from World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the possibility of El Nino episode later this year may be bad news for India’s monsoon. While, experts say it would be premature to say anything definitely at this juncture, an El Nino year usually negatively impacts rains amidst the monsoon.
The update also indicates that there is a widespread global signal for above-average land surface temperatures in the midst of March-May period due to various climatic factors. This is already being felt in India facing heat wave to severe heat wave conditions in many parts of the country.
As per Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences, El Nino is expected to develop by the second half of the season. As the current predictions suggest it could be a moderate El Nino. However predictions at this time have large uncertainties. Better idea about El Nino will be known by June. So at present there is need not panic but closely monitor the situation.
El Nino refers to the periodic large-scale warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It usually has the opposite effects of La Nina, which is linked to good monsoon rainfall in the Indian sub-continent.
WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo says that the WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures seen in 2024,”
Adding that seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management.
Notedly, WMO Global Producing Centre last week’s forecasts indicate the chance of an El Nino increases steadily to around 40% during May-July period.
News Edit KV Raman
