El Nino to show effect around first week of July will impact South West Monsoon
El Nino to show effect around first week of July will impact South West Monsoon
This year around Monsoon has been following ‘unusual’ track.
Customarily monsoon arrives over Kerala by June 1, Mumbai by June 11, and Delhi by June 27.
The climate change and the cyclone Biporjoy hampered the South West Monsoon, India’s much anticipated weather phenomenon the Southwest Monsoon has been behaving somewhat off the mark this year.
As per IMD, for the first time since June 21, 1961, on Sunday the seasonal rains arrived over Mumbai and Delhi. While it splashed the national capital two days before schedule, its arrival over the financial capital of the country was almost two weeks late.
Now the wait is on for the monsoon to cover the entire nation.
As on date, the Northern Limit of Monsoon is passing through Porbandar, Ahmedabad, Udaipur, Narnaul, Firozpur and the IMD says the conditions are favourable for its further advance into some more parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, remaining parts of Haryana and Punjab over the next two days.
Meanwhile, the activity over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi has been ‘vigorous’, a term used when recorded rainfall is more than ‘normal’ and widespread.
Normally, monsoon arrives over Kerala by June 1, Mumbai by June 11, and Delhi by June 27.
It covers the entire country by July 8.
This year, however, it arrived in Kerala on June 8, eight days later than the usual onset date.
Monsoon, on which almost half of India’s agricultural tracts depend upon, follows a set track most of the time. The four-month June-September season plays a crucial role in replenishing the country’s reservoirs, groundwater, power generation capacity, the overall economy and happiness and the people.
This year, however, its track has been somewhat unusual.
While it covered a significant portion of north India, including Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and large parts of J&K ahead of the schedule, it was two weeks behind in western and central parts.
According to Meteorologists Cyclone Biparjoy impacted its progress over south India and adjoining western and central parts by absorbing most of the moisture, slowing down progress along the west coast.
But the Bay of Bengal branch, which is responsible for bringing rain to northeast and eastern parts, has done well due to the formation of a LPA over the Bay of Bengal with remnants of Biparjoy, they add.
The monsoon has two branches, the other being the Arabian Sea branch
Meanwhile, the Arabian Sea branch is gaining strength.
While delay in the onset does not impact rainfall during a season, this year the monsoon is expected to be impacted by the El Nino factor this year.
El Nino, the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, is generally associated with the weakening of monsoon current and dry weather in India.
According to Skymet’s Mahesh Palawat, “the impact of El Nino will become noticeable around the first week of July. It will not be a drought-like situation but rains will be patchy and east and northwest India will receive less than normal rains. The effect will continue till the end of the season.
Even as the country on the whole is expected to receive ‘normal’ rains notwithstanding the evolving El Nino conditions, as per the IMD, east and northwest India will receive lesser rains. In other words, the country on the whole may log ‘normal’ rainfall but there will be excess rains in some parts and deficiency in others.
The central and the south peninsula regions are expected to receive ‘normal’ rains at 94-106 percent of the long-period average. Rainfall between 96 and 104 percent is considered ‘normal’, below 90 percent ‘deficient’, between 90 and 95 percent ‘below normal’, between 105 and 110 per cent ‘above normal’ and above 100 percent ‘excess’.
News input KV Raman
