Strong words amid PM Modi Amit Shah indicate ‘Surgical Strike’ Soon
Strong words amid
PM Modi Amit Shah indicate ‘Surgical Strike’
Soon
The Uri and Pulwama terror attacks in 2016 and 2019 saw surgical strikes inside Pakistan within 11 and 12 days, respectively
The strong words of
PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah post Pahalgam indicate a surgical strike is imminent.
When will India strike? This is the question on the minds of every Indian as it is now 13 days since the dastardly Pahalgam terrorist attack in which 26 innocent civilians lost their lives.
PM Modi Says ‘Lot To Do, Time Is Limited’, Then Adds ‘It’s Not About Current Situation’
There is recognition at the highest levels of government that the collective conscience of Hindu anger in the country needs to be satisfied. But is India also factoring in geopolitics and geoeconomics to calibrate its ultimate response, with Modi not taking the bait from Pakistan to launch a full-scale conflict?
First, let’s talk about what India has done since the April 22 Pahalgam attack to put Pakistan on notice, and tenterhooks. Then, let’s get to why India may take its time.
The PM rattled Pakistan by first saying that he will go to “the ends of the earth” in his pursuit of the Pahalgam attackers and their backers. He repeated his message a few days later, promising the harshest response.
Then, in an unprecedented move, the government chose to release visuals of the PM’s meeting with the three service chiefs, the CDS, the NSA and the Defence Minister.
Not just this, but it was coupled with the information that the PM had given the forces the operational freedom to choose the “mode, targets and timing” of India’s response.
A few days later, Shah made it clear: “Every Pahalgam perpetrator and their backers will get an answer – chun chun ke jawab milega.”
The PM has met the three chiefs of the armed forces separately last week, after the big Tuesday meeting. He met the Army chief on Wednesday, the Navy chief on Saturday and the Air Force chief on Sunday. The speculation is that options are being put on the table.
The messaging was clear – it was both external and internal.
External, it was directed at Pakistan, which panicked upon seeing PM Modi’s visuals and said India was ready to attack in 24 to 36 hours, and woke up leaders in world capitals that night.
Pakistan has mobilised its armed forces, air defences, and naval assets – all of which come at a massive cost that the fragile state of its economy will not be able to sustain for long.
By delaying a strike, India is bleeding Pakistan and has also put the country in a state of perpetual fear of India.
The messaging was internal too – to citizens, reassuring them that the government is on top of the job. Steps such as the pause on the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) have either depleted water flow in rivers to Pakistan or created a flood-like situation, which is disastrous for their crops.
India has also moved the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the FATF to put a squeeze on Pakistan’s funding in light of the Pahalgam attack.
But the government knows that the sentiments of the Hindu majority – particularly their collective sense of anger – need to be acknowledged and addressed by visible kinetic action against Pakistan.
People across India are angry and feel humiliated that terrorists have killed Hindu tourists by targeting them.
India may be calibrating its response given the geopolitics at play. That brings us to the next big question.
The timing of the Pahalgam attack is peculiar – it came at a time when the Indian growth story is booming, and we are poised to be the first country to strike a trade deal with the US, at a time when China, due to high US tariffs, is facing disruption of global supply chains, and when Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir was facing gross unpopularity at home post the Balochistan attack.
Days before the Pahalgam attack, it was Munir who made a provocative statement.
In short, there was no provocation from India. Tourists in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have never been targeted in this fashion. The attack seems a clear ploy to provoke Modi into an escalatory response and force him to retaliate.
Interestingly, it is Pakistan that has been speaking of an ‘impending war’ at all world forums since the Pahalgam attack, not India. A full-scale conflict could derail India’s growth story, and such a flashpoint could project India as an unattractive destination to do business.
Look at what has happened in Pakistan over the last week – Munir has succeeded in ensuring the ISI chief also got the post of National Security Advisor, in what many see as a virtual coup that renders the post and power of the Pakistan Prime Minister as honorary.
China’s open backing of Pakistan at the UN Security Council, and through bilateral exchanges, has also left nothing to the imagination.
In short, Pakistan and China want Modi to take the bait and launch a full-scale conflict that would surely cast a geopolitical cloud over India and the region. It would again hyphenate India and Pakistan in global diplomatic circles, which India has tried to break.
The US under Donald Trump seems to have seen through this geopolitical game, with Vice-President JD Vance saying he hopes that India responds to the Pahalgam terror attack in a way that does not lead to a broader regional conflict.
It shows that the US backs a ‘limited strike’ by India. Trump’s approach in 2019 was the same – when the US had termed India’s strike at Balakot as a “counter-terrorism action”.
What will India do, and when will it do it? The priority is neutralising the perpetrators, against whom an operation has been on in the Pir Panjal range for the past 13 days. India wants to put an end to Pakistan-sponsored terror for good and put the Pakistan Army and its chief, Asim Munir, in the dock.
News Edit KV Raman
