Russia and China have declared that they will no longer use the U.S. dollar for any of their trade dealings.
Everyone talks about de-dollarization, but how viable is it long-term when the Yuan and Ruble lack the same liquidity? Is this a genuine threat to the dollar, or just geopolitical posturing?
It’s viable for Russia-China bilateral trade—99% now settles in rubles/yuan per late 2025 data, driven by sanctions bypassing SWIFT and dollar exposure. But long-term? Limited. Yuan lacks full convertibility (China’s capital controls cap free flows), and ruble liquidity is thin/volatility-prone—neither matches dollar’s $7T+ daily FX market or universal trust. Genuine for them: cuts sanction risks, aids energy/oil deals. Broader threat to dollar? Mostly posturing. Global trade invoicing stays ~88% dollar-denominated; reserves ~58%. This duo’s shift fragments edges, not dethrones the core.
